What lies ahead for ocean carbon removal?
Takeaways from the Ocean Visions Biennial Summit
A couple weeks ago I had the pleasure of attending and speaking at the first-ever Ocean Visions Biennial Summit, which took place at the Georgia Aquarium in Atlanta. It was an inspiring gathering of ~300 individuals and organizations from all walks of the ocean, including founders, investors, academics, policy-makers, nonprofits, and more. Topics ranged from carbon dioxide removal (CDR), coastal adaptation, responsible community engagement, and everything in between.
Our oceans and marine ecosystems are in dire need of climate mitigation, in ways that do not get enough attention. For example, I learned that 14 zettajoules of heat are added to the ocean every second. What does 14 zettajoules of heat equate to? The explosion of seven atomic bombs. Every second. Moreover, ocean acidity has increased by 30% in the past 200 years. Ocean acidification (due to an increase in CO2 in the water) has disastrous effects on coral bleaching and the ability for crustaceans to form shells.
But the conference also demonstrated there is hope in reversing these phenomenons, which is partially due to the variety of CDR initiatives being launched to cool our atmosphere and oceans, and reduce acidification. Having listened to myriad panelists and experts share their insights, I walked away with a number of takeaways on the state of ocean-based CDR and marine monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV):
Core Takeaways
We need to be brought closer to the topics we are making decisions on. Being in the Georgia Aquarium and looking in wonder at whale sharks, manta rays, belugas, and many other species was incredible. But doing so while also learning/talking about ocean-based CDR really helped in illustrating who else we are doing this work for, and how important it is to avoid unintended consequences on their ecosystems.
We need to learn how to change the ocean-solutions narrative and develop better storytelling around topics of carbon removal and coastal adaptation. People fear what they don’t know or understand. Promising concepts like ocean alkalinity enhancement and biomass burial in anoxic basins are (and sound) complex, which can make them difficult for most people to approach at first.
On that note, it’s imperative that we research and project the potential unintended consequences from these new solutions. But so is the opposite frame of analysis: what is the cost of inaction? What is the counterfactual situation, and how can we better incorporate that into the dialogue of a cost-benefit analysis
We need more testbeds and the permitting unlocked to make that testing possible.
There is going to be a lot of work before the government can purchase ocean CDR credits, potentially including legally binding community benefit agreements. Until then, we'll need more corporations to step in and follow the leads of orgs like Frontier and Microsoft.
Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV)
There were a couple panels and many more side conversations on the future of MRV in ocean CDR. It remains a tricky topic that has no black/white answers, especially given the complexities of the ocean, nascence of the industry, and variety of approaches and organizations emerging. Two questions that particularly resonated were as follows:
A) How should we evaluate the CDR company’s responsibilities for developing MRV versus that of the system’s players (institutions, non-profits, academics)?
Ocean companies supplying the carbon removal service have been developing their own MRV in order to determine their claims of tons/CO2 removed and the respective co-benefits/consequences. But this dynamic can be tricky when it comes to external accreditation and certification. As such, there seem to be a set of possible paths for the space to manifest, all of which can occur simultaneously:
CDR suppliers will produce their own MRV for internal measurement (as many already are) and partner with third-party MRV providers (those used by accreditation parties) in order to sell credits at scale.
CDR suppliers will find competitive advantage in being the best at logistics and deployment, and outsource their own MRV to a private MRV provider (the likes of which are being started up at an increasing rate). Third-party accreditation would then come in separately to verify.
CDR suppliers will find competitive advantage in being the best at logistics and deployment, and outsource their MRV to an exclusive partnership with an academic/public institution that carries out MRV services. Third-party accreditation would then come in separately to verify, but likely in a different (less?) capacity than in #2.
CDR suppliers will turn the MRV solution they’ve developed into their core business to be used for the larger accreditation value chain, and shift toward providing consulting services for the logistics of deployment.
B) How can we come to terms with the need for both modeling and direct observation (which extends beyond oceans and into soil and terrestrial measurement)?
There is a huge learning curve (myself included) when it comes to having comfort with models for MRV accuracy. Models are critical because it’s difficult to directly measure these impacts on a large scale in the vast ocean, but combining them with observations is still essential to keep informing models properly.
And what does it mean for ocean MRV to be “good enough”? It goes without saying MRV needs to be both robust and accessible. But “good enough” may also be contextual, depending on if we’re dealing with compliance markets vs. voluntary markets vs. public sector procurement.
One approach that was discussed is “probabilistic MRV”: folding quantification uncertainty into future success and thereby reducing the need for direct observations at scale. This is aligned with a lot of the work Frontier and Carbon Plan have conducted with their Verification Confidence Levels (VCL) framework.
🌊 🌊
The ocean community is growing, and fast! There are so many new ocean CDR solutions being developed and fascinating founders behind them. I look forward to seeing how it unfolds, and finding ways to support them so we can continue seeing those magnificent whale sharks, manta rays, and belugas; not just in aquariums, but thriving in our oceans with all other marine life.